Three of the region’s premiere economists provided their insights into what lies ahead for the Spokane economy at the 28th annual Economic Forecast. The event’s theme, National Forces, Local Reality, was reflected in the remarks by Steve Scranton, Dr. Vange Hochheimer, and Dr. Grant Forsyth.
Mr. Scranton led off the presentations with a focus on the national economy and described the current situation around the country as a “emotional recession” where economic indicators aren’t at recession levels, but consumer’s feelings and spending actions are more indicative of a recession. He pointed to what he described as “shadow pay cuts” to demonstrate where these feelings are coming from. Workers are being paid more on average than last year, but they are working less hours on average. When that is combined with persistent inflation, it wipes out the gains associated with the increased pay.
Dr. Hochheimer spoke about the state of the Washington economy what may lie ahead for 2026. She noted how Federal spending cuts will create headwinds for vulnerable populations such as children, seniors, and low-income workers. Loss of fiscal support from these programs means that households and individuals will be faced with tougher purchasing decisions. Also, as Federal dollars to social programs decrease, additional burden is placed on state systems and non-profits. Despite these challenges, she concludes that strategic investment by businesses can sustain growth.
The presentations concluded with Dr. Forsyth’s forecast for the regional economy in Eastern Washington and North Idaho. He pointed out the connection between recent slowing employment growth and regional population growth. He also stated that despite the slowing in regional population the region is not seeing an increase in housing affordability.
The presenters then took turns answering questions provided by the audience in a panel moderated by Journal of Business Publisher Paul Read. The main message was that the U.S. economy and the Spokane regional economy continue to cool, but there are indicators that modest growth will continue in 2026. Spokane’s economy may face risks due to heavy reliance on the health care industry, but emerging areas such as aerospace and energy provide opportunity to blunt the effects to our region broadly.
GSI would like to thank our event co-host, the Spokane Journal of Business, and our Presenting Sponsor, Numerica Credit Union, for helping support this event and giving this important information to attendees.
