By Jake Mayson, Director of Public Policy, Greater Spokane Inc.
The results of Washington State’s 2024 elections revealed what many have already seen as a shifting political landscape. With retirements of several key moderates from the legislature at the end of last session, the business community has been bracing for significant policymaking changes in Olympia. To add to this shifting landscape and uncertainty, Spokane and GSI are faced with the first legislative session in nearly 30 years without a Majority Leader from our region representing Spokane in Olympia.
From legislative races to statewide initiatives, the election outcomes solidify growing Democratic control and signal that controversial policies from the last session are likely to be dusted off and run again.
In Statewide Races: Democrats Hold the Advantage
Despite targeted efforts by Republicans to challenge statewide Democratic control, the structural advantages favoring Democrats in these races, especially in presidential years, proved insurmountable. The Commissioner of Public Lands race exemplified this advantage as heavy independent expenditures from timber interests failed to close the gap for Jaime Herrera Beutler who was considered the most likely Republican to win statewide and was better funded by nearly a 4:1 ratio.
Low-information down-ballot races are usually considered a good bellwether for partisan advantage and with Herrera Beutler remaining the high-water mark for Republicans, it looks like the advantage is at least 58% Democratic to 42% Republican.
In Legislative Races: Larger, More Progressive Democratic Majorities
The legislative elections solidified Democratic control in Olympia. Democrats now hold 26 of the state’s 49 legislative districts that are considered “safe blue,” compared to just 17 “safe red” districts for Republicans. Together, these safe seats account for 88% of the districts, creating a stable foundation for Democratic policymaking.
In addition to this, Democrats are expected to pick up two additional seats in both the House and Senate. This expansion puts both democratic caucuses on the verge of a supermajority, though they are not likely to get it this year. Holding a supermajority would give Democrats the power to pass bond measures, usually a key bargaining chip for the minority as it’s necessary to pass a capital budget.
In southwest Washington, four closely contested races remain too close to call. However, early indications suggest Republican incumbents will retain their seats despite Democratic challenges. Notably, lawsuits aimed at increasing Latino voting representation in Yakima’s 14th District did not yield the expected Democratic gains, with Republican candidates easily retaining their seats in the Yakima region.
Included with the gains and in some of the changes inside the majority caucuses is a new, younger, and more progressive cohort of legislators. Many of the legislators who have retired in the last couple of cycles were considered moderates and often a bulwark against some of the openly anti-business bills proposed in the legislature. With those moderates now gone, many in the business community are wondering what will happen to some of those once-shelved bills and how many of them will be successfully resurrected.
Policy Implications
With voters rejecting initiatives to repeal taxes and planned spending currently outpacing expected revenues, Democrats are anticipated to explore additional revenue-raising measures this legislative session. Because Seattle often serves as a testing ground for the bleeding edge of progressive policy, it’s very possible the progressive majority is looking to Seattle’s JumpStart payroll tax on high-income earners as a viable source.
Majority Democrats are also likely to revisit controversial policies that narrowly failed last session. Key business policy areas to watch in addition to tax increases include:
- Rent Control: Proposals to dictate rent prices and rent increases.
- Hospital Mergers: Increased scrutiny, cost, and oversight for healthcare system consolidations.
- Unemployment Insurance Benefits for Striking Workers: Expanding eligibility and increasing costs to pay workers who chose to go on strike.
What’s Next for Spokane Employers?
The 2024 elections have positioned Democrats to shape the state’s legislative agenda significantly. With near-supermajorities and a perceived mandate to revisit once-defeated policies, the business community is facing significant headwinds in key business policy areas. GSI and the Spokane employer community will need to focus on areas that, ultimately, have a viable path forward and meet their goals. GSI will be releasing its legislative priorities in the coming weeks. You can expect to see areas like workforce housing, licensure reform for school workers, and transportation infrastructure investments near the top.
As these developments unfold, GSI remains committed to advocating for policies that foster economic growth and maintain a competitive business climate in Washington State. Stay tuned for updates and analysis as we navigate this evolving political landscape.
